Uncertainty about how much the climate is changing is not a reason to delay preparing for the harmful impacts of climate change says Professor Jim Hall of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford and colleagues at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, writing today in Nature Climate Change.
The costs of adapting to climate change, sea-level and flooding include the upfront expenses of upgrading infrastructure, installing early-warning systems, and effective organisations, as well as the costs of reducing risk, such as not building on flood plains.
Robert Nicholls, Professor of Coastal Engineering at the University of Southampton and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, says: "Some impacts of climate change are now inevitable, so it is widely agreed that we must adapt. But selecting and funding adaptation remains a challenge."
Professor Nicholls and his co-authors describe two ways of assessing how much adaptation to climate change is enough by balancing the risk of climate change against the cost of adaptation. First they describe cost-benefit analysis where the cost of the adaptation has to be less than the benefit of risk reduction. Alternatively, decision makers can seek the most cost-effective way of maintaining a tolerable level of risk. This approach is easier for policymakers to understand, but thresholds of tolerable risk from climate change are not well defined.
The Thames Estuary Gateway is the only place in the UK where a level of protection against flooding is defined in law – a 1 in 1000 year standard of protection which needs to be maintained with rising sea levels. The authors conclude that adaptation decisions need exploration across a variety of different interpretations of risk, not a single answer.
"Like all complex problems several perspectives are needed and any single answer would misrepresent the uncertainty, but let us not let paralysis by analysis be an obstacle to action on adaptation," says Professor Hall.
"Adaptation decisions have further benefits. The tenfold increase in the Netherlands standard of flood protection proposed in 2008 has sent a message to global business that the Netherlands will be open in the future, come what may," adds Professor Nicholls.
The research article 'Proportionate adaptation' by Professor Jim Hall (Oxford University), Dr Sally Brown (University of Southampton), Professor Robert Nicholls (University of Southampton), Professor Nick Pidgeon (Cardiff University) and Professor Robert Watson (University of East Anglia) is published in Nature Climate Change December 2012. All of the authors are members of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
University of Southampton: http://www.southampton.ac.uk/
This press release was posted to serve as a topic for discussion. Please comment below. We try our best to only post press releases that are associated with peer reviewed scientific literature. Critical discussions of the research are appreciated. If you need help finding a link to the original article, please contact us on twitter or via e-mail.
Driven by the ongoing drought and the coming winter, bears are encroaching on Reno, Nevada in record numbers.
The UK's wind farms generated more power than its nuclear power stations on Tuesday, the National Grid says.
A charming and poetic account of apiculture in Mark Winston's Bee Time reminds us why an ancient partnership between humans and bees needs saving
Use of a cattle drug that has devastated vulture populations in India is in decline, offering hope of recovery – but vultures in Europe may now be at risk
The winners of the Society of Biology's third annual photography contest include amazing images of a haunting leopard, an otherworldly spider, and Yellowstone National Park's Grand Prismatic Spring.
Bee colonies in Brisbane are waging war for months on end, according to a new study, and the victorious swarms are taking over the hives of rival species.
Hundreds of thousands of cranes stop in Germany on their way to warmer climates
May, June, August and September have all been record-breaking months
Host Audie Cornish talks with Drew Gronewold, a hydrologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, about why water levels in lakes Superior, Michigan and Huron are rising.
Tornadoes in the United States are increasingly coming in swarms rather than as isolated twisters, according to a study by U.S. government meteorologists published on Thursday that illustrates another trend toward extreme weather emerging in recent years.