Carbon dioxide emission reductions required to limit global warming to 2°C are becoming a receding goal based on new figures reported today in the latest Global Carbon Project (GCP) calculations published today in the advanced online edition of Nature Climate Change. "A shift to a 2°C pathway requires an immediate, large, and sustained global mitigation effort" says GCP executive-director and CSIRO co-author of the paper, Dr Pep Canadell.
Global CO2 emissions have increased by 58% since 1990, rising 3% in 2011, and 2.6% in 2012. The most recent figure is estimated from a 3.3% growth in global gross domestic product and a 0.7% improvement in the carbon intensity of the economy.
Dr Canadell said the latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track at the high end of a range of emission scenarios, expanding the gap between current trends and the course of mitigation needed to keep global warming below 2°C.
He said on-going international climate negotiations need to recognise and act upon the growing gap between the current pathway of global greenhouse emissions and the likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
The research, led by Dr Glen Peters from CICERO, Norway, compared recent carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and gas flaring with emission scenarios used to project climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
"We need a sustained global CO2 mitigation rate of at least 3% if global emissions are to peak before 2020 and follow an emission pathway that can keep the temperature increase below 2˚C", Dr Peters said.
"Mitigation requires energy transition led by the largest emitters of China, the US, the European Union and India".
He said that remaining below a 2°C rise above pre-industrial levels will require a commitment to technological, social and political innovations and an increasing need to rely on net negative emissions in future.
CSIRO Australia: http://www.csiro.au
This press release was posted to serve as a topic for discussion. Please comment below. We try our best to only post press releases that are associated with peer reviewed scientific literature. Critical discussions of the research are appreciated. If you need help finding a link to the original article, please contact us on twitter or via e-mail.
A female from the first wild beaver colony in England for hundreds of years has given birth to at least two young.
In a desperate bid to save one of the world's most endangered animals, conservationists are taking the controversial step of defacing the last survivors.
In a landmark ruling, a court in the Hague has ordered the Dutch government to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 25 per cent by 2020
Environmental impacts of food waste aren't a great concern, a new survey shows
Scientists are trying to predict what might happen if genetically modified salmon escaped growth facilities. It's a scenario often raised by critics who don't want the FDA to approve sale of the fish.
The decision comes despite a ruling that Tokyo hasn't proven a scientific need for the hunts
"Twice the sunshine, half the cost"
NPR's Melissa Block interviews Environmental Protection Agency administrator Gina McCarthy on the second anniversary of the president's Climate Action Plan.
Driven by new regulations and fracking, more coal power plants are retiring for cheaper, cleaner-burning natural gas. But scientists have yet to work out the fossil fuel's imperfect climate footprint.
Picture a troop of olive baboons, moving over the savannah. There’s around fifty of them, and they cover …