Carbon dioxide emission reductions required to limit global warming to 2°C are becoming a receding goal based on new figures reported today in the latest Global Carbon Project (GCP) calculations published today in the advanced online edition of Nature Climate Change. "A shift to a 2°C pathway requires an immediate, large, and sustained global mitigation effort" says GCP executive-director and CSIRO co-author of the paper, Dr Pep Canadell.
Global CO2 emissions have increased by 58% since 1990, rising 3% in 2011, and 2.6% in 2012. The most recent figure is estimated from a 3.3% growth in global gross domestic product and a 0.7% improvement in the carbon intensity of the economy.
Dr Canadell said the latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track at the high end of a range of emission scenarios, expanding the gap between current trends and the course of mitigation needed to keep global warming below 2°C.
He said on-going international climate negotiations need to recognise and act upon the growing gap between the current pathway of global greenhouse emissions and the likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
The research, led by Dr Glen Peters from CICERO, Norway, compared recent carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and gas flaring with emission scenarios used to project climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
"We need a sustained global CO2 mitigation rate of at least 3% if global emissions are to peak before 2020 and follow an emission pathway that can keep the temperature increase below 2˚C", Dr Peters said.
"Mitigation requires energy transition led by the largest emitters of China, the US, the European Union and India".
He said that remaining below a 2°C rise above pre-industrial levels will require a commitment to technological, social and political innovations and an increasing need to rely on net negative emissions in future.
CSIRO Australia: http://www.csiro.au
This press release was posted to serve as a topic for discussion. Please comment below. We try our best to only post press releases that are associated with peer reviewed scientific literature. Critical discussions of the research are appreciated. If you need help finding a link to the original article, please contact us on twitter or via e-mail.
After 30 years working in mountain regions, Jack Ives argues that the world's elevated habitats are essential
Long-range tracking technology will help researchers understand bee behavior.
Rising temperatures in the coming years may result in less tasty vegetables, meat and dairy products, report says
Americans concerns near record lows
In South Florida, the world's two most destructive termite species could be mating because of climate change. Researchers say if the hybrids colonize, they could pose an even greater economic threat.
War, pestilence, even climate change, are trifles by comparison. Destroy the soil and we all starve
Director of the charitable trust, Jeremy Farrar, says retaining fossil fuel shares gives more influence over such companies – but they would not rule out divesting in the future, should engagement prove ineffective
ROME (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Scientists have bred 30 new varieties of "heat-beating" beans designed to provide protein for the world's poor in the face of global warming, researchers announced on Wednesday.
Climate change-related rising sea levels are expected to intensify erosion; "It's half of our economy"
Animal rights groups hope an appeals court will help free the orca Lolita from a Miami aquarium where it has lived since 1970