Earth (Credit: NASA)
Monthly temperature extremes have become much more frequent, as measurements from around the world indicate. On average, there are now five times as many record-breaking hot months worldwide than could be expected without long-term global warming, shows a study now published in Climatic Change. In parts of Europe, Africa and southern Asia the number of monthly records has increased even by a factor of ten. 80 percent of observed monthly records would not have occurred without human influence on climate, concludes the authors-team of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Complutense University of Madrid.
"The last decade brought unprecedented heat waves; for instance in the US in 2012, in Russia in 2010, in Australia in 2009, and in Europe in 2003," lead-author Dim Coumou says. "Heat extremes are causing many deaths, major forest fires, and harvest losses – societies and ecosystems are not adapted to ever new record-breaking temperatures." The new study relies on 131 years of monthly temperature data for more than 12.000 grid points around the world, provided by NASA. Comprehensive analysis reveals the increase in records.
The researchers developed a robust statistical model that explains the surge in the number of records to be a consequence of the long-term global warming trend. That surge has been particularly steep over the last 40 years, due to a steep global-warming trend over this period. Superimposed on this long-term rise, the data show the effect of natural variability, with especially high numbers of heat records during years with El Niño events. This natural variability, however, does not explain the overall development of record events, found the researchers.
If global warming continues, the study projects that the number of new monthly records will be 12 times as high in 30 years as it would be without climate change. "Now this doesn't mean there will be 12 times more hot summers in Europe than today – it actually is worse," Coumou points out. For the new records set in the 2040s will not just be hot by today's standards. "To count as new records, they actually have to beat heat records set in the 2020s and 2030s, which will already be hotter than anything we have experienced to date," explains Coumou. "And this is just the global average – in some continental regions, the increase in new records will be even greater."
"Statistics alone cannot tell us what the cause of any single heat wave is, but they show a large and systematic increase in the number of heat records due to global warming," says Stefan Rahmstorf, a co-author of the study and co-chair of PIK's research domain Earth System Analysis. "Today this increase is already so large that by far most monthly heat records are due to climate change. The science is clear that only a small fraction would have occurred naturally."
###
Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Rahmstorf, S. (2013): Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures . Climatic Change(online) [doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1]
Weblink to the article: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK): http://www.pik-potsdam.de
Thanks to Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) for this article.
This press release was posted to serve as a topic for discussion. Please comment below. We try our best to only post press releases that are associated with peer reviewed scientific literature. Critical discussions of the research are appreciated. If you need help finding a link to the original article, please contact us on twitter or via e-mail.
This press release has been viewed 114 time(s).
 |
 |
|
|
A bulletin posted today from NOAA stated that the climate event known as El Niño has a 50 percent chance of returning this summer or fall. If it appears, it could mean heavy rainfall next winter for drought-stricken California and ...
Elephants that give birth as teenagers die younger, but are fitter than mothers that delay, scientists say.
National and state parks in California are under threat from burl wood seekers.
A new study concludes that 136 UNESCO World Heritage sites could be washed away by rising sea levels
The park's bears have developed a taste for human food, and that's gotten them in big trouble. But efforts to teach campers to lock up food are helping solve the problem, a bear hair analysis shows.
A "live fast, die young" life history strategy could have played a key role leading to the high tree diversity in the Amazon, scientists suggest.
Scientists using satellite tracking finally have some data on where very young loggerhead turtles go once they leave Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.
Europe's manufacturers would see profits rise by €100 billion a year if they used fewer resources and recycled more
Antarctica is one of the most pristine environments on Earth, but it’s wrestling with a pollution problem.
Indonesia's senior Muslim clerics issue first ever fatwa against wildlife smuggling and challenge the country's 200 million Muslims to protect threatened wildlife.
 |
 |