The human species is, at this moment, in the process of becoming a mainly urban animal after a thousand generations spent mainly in rural conditions. Many economists and sociologists see this trend as our potential salvation in a world heading toward 9 billion people, although there are some big ifs.
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Urban life can be productive and satisfying and is almost always much more efficient in terms of energy and land use. Families are smaller. Incomes can rise quicker. Wealth builds from the concentration of capital and enterprise. Pollution is concentrated, too, but that makes it easier to clean up once incomes grow enough to pay for municipal services. (That hasn’t happened yet in many developing-country cities.)
Then things can kick back. Prosperity in the 21st century almost always comes with an expectation of freedom of movement, increasingly in cars, as people abandon crowded buses or balky trains. Add that to the vast flow of goods trucked through cities and you get paralysis.
I explored the problem, and solutions, in several interviews this week with experts on New York City’s traffic woes.
Gridlock already is estimated by some experts to cost New York City up to $20 billion a year in lost productivity. India’s cities are mired in traffic. China is seeing ever more millions abandon bicycles in favor of autos. We’re heading toward a world of a billion cars sometime around 2020.
Residents in Los Angeles have extended their lives into their cars, putting on makeup, watching TV, holding business meetings behind the wheel as they snake along.
Traffic has become so normal that reports on its ebbs and clots are often bundled on news radio with weather forecasts. But city managers and planners say traffic is not a force of nature and must be managed in a crowding world.
So how do you have a prosperous city and not have it choke on its own wealth? One way is to make drivers pay as they go, charging hefty fees when cars or trucks cross into cities’ most crowded streets.
The same technology that allows 24/7 surveillance in broad swathes of London and Manhattan and has smoothed the rides of commuters on highways with EZ Pass systems can be tailored to charge for congestion, block by block. (The privacy issue is a separate matter.)
New York City, prompted by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is moving haltingly toward establishing such a system, following London, Singapore, Stockholm, and Milan. Details are online here.
Political battles between outlying boroughs and suburbs – where car culture is stronger – and city planners desperate to unclog streets could make New York’s congestion-pricing effort drag on a good while longer.
Right now, tolling is set up in ways that just make things worse, said Sam Schwartz, a former New York City transportation commissioner, also known as “Gridlock Sam,” who is now a consultant. “If you are a trucker and you want to go from Brooklyn to New Jersey and you’ve got six or eight axles, you will pay in excess of $50 to go on highways that were designed for you,” he told me. “Or we’ll invite you in for free. Go over the 100-year-old Manhattan Bridge that’s twisitng and cracking, and rumble across Canal Street, bounce through Chinatown and Soho, head up Hudson Street to Eighth Avenue and go out the Lincoln tunnel and we’ll charge you zero. It’s insane, our pricing system.”
But most experts say it’s inevitable that drivers in the urban age will have to start paying for the hidden costs of the congestion they create.
Some proposals take things further. The philanthropist and longtime labor mediator Ted Kheel assembled a team last year that has a plan to charge much higher fees than those proposed by Mr. Bloomberg, raising enough money — more than $2 billion a year — to make subways and buses free. You can read it here and explore an interactive spreadsheet showing how it could work.
Do you live in or around a city, and if so how do you get to work? Would you take a train or bus if traffic thinned out? Should drivers essentially pay for transit riders?
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